The Signal And The Noise By Nate Silver Summary

Nate Silver created a new baseball prediction system and accurately predicted the 2008 election. He solidified his status as a national political forecaster by predicting perfect predictions for the 2012 elections. Silver is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

In keeping with his mission to find the truth in the data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in fields ranging from the hurricanes to baseball, from the poker tables to the stock markets, and from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and appreciates the thinking of these witches and their connections. What is behind their success? Are they good or just unlucky? What patterns did they come up with? And did their predictions come true? He explores unexpected similarities and finds unexpected comparisons. And sometimes what matters is not how good a forecast is in absolute terms, but how good it is compared to competitors. In other respects, however, divination is a fundamental and dangerous science.

The Signal And The Noise Pdf By Nate Silver said the most accurate predictors have a greater sense of probability and tend to be humble and hardworking. They separate the predictable from the unpredictable and find thousands of little things that bring them closer to the truth. Because they estimate probability, they can distinguish between signal and noise.